www.COMMODITYALMANAC.com

PURCHASE 
PREVIEW
 

 

 
  METALS ENERGY GRAINS LIVESTOCK SOFTS  
HOME
SUBSCRIBE
PREVIEW

FAST FACTS
QUOTES/CHARTS
WEATHER

MARKET OVERVIEWS / FAST FACTS
METALS
   GOLD
   SILVER
PETROLEUM
   CRUDE OIL
   NATURAL GAS
GRAINS
   SOYBEANS
   WHEAT
   CORN
LIVESTOCK
   CATTLE
   HOGS
SOFTS
   COFFEE
   SUGAR
   COCOA

CONTRACT SPECS

FUTURES/OPTION
EXPIRATIONS



Commodity Trading Software



 

(PL) WEEKLY STRATAGEM…

… FIRST 3 WEEKS IN NOVEMBER BULLISH FOR PLATINUM

BACKGROUND LOGIC:  The dual combination of a large influx of demand from the jewelry industry – an industry which accounts for roughly 40% of average yearly platinum consumption - ahead of the Christmas shopping season, combined with increasing stock building from Industrial Consumers – mainly the automotive industry and electronics industries – tends to be supportive of Platinum prices during the 1st three weeks in November, a trend which has increased in accuracy and magnitude in the last decade and a half.

JANUARY PLATINUM FUTURES HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE
% AND $/OZ CHANGES

LAST WEEK OCT

LAST OCT  WEEKLY

1ST 3 WEEK

1ST 3 WEEK

3RD WEEK

1ST 3 WEEK CHG

1ST 3 WEEK RALLY

1ST 3 WEEK BREAK

DATE

 CLOSE

NOV HIGH

NOV LOW

NOV CLOSE

$/OZ

%

$/OZ

%

$/OZ

%

10/28/83

392.1

400.0

375.0

385.6

-6.5

-1.7%

7.9

2.0%

-17.1

-4.4%

10/26/84

323.9

342.9

320.0

332.4

8.5

2.6%

19.0

5.9%

-3.9

-1.2%

10/25/85

339.7

342.0

322.0

333.9

-5.8

-1.7%

2.3

0.7%

-17.7

-5.2%

10/31/86

572.4

583.5

456.5

464.1

-108.3

-18.9%

11.1

1.9%

-115.9

-20.2%

10/30/87

532.8

537.0

475.3

504.8

-28.0

-5.3%

4.2

0.8%

-57.5

-10.8%

10/28/88

543.8

593.9

541.0

558.4

14.6

2.7%

50.1

9.2%

-2.8

-0.5%

10/27/89

499.3

528.0

490.5

526.6

27.3

5.5%

28.7

5.7%

-8.8

-1.8%

10/26/90

413.4

443.5

404.4

421.7

8.3

2.0%

30.1

7.3%

-9.0

-2.2%

10/25/91

367.4

369.5

356.0

365.4

-2.0

-0.5%

2.1

0.6%

-11.4

-3.1%

10/30/92

354.2

368.0

345.0

360.6

6.4

1.8%

13.8

3.9%

-9.2

-2.6%

10/29/93

373.1

384.9

365.2

380.0

6.9

1.8%

11.8

3.2%

-7.9

-2.1%

10/28/94

425.8

426.0

406.5

414.0

-11.8

-2.8%

0.2

0.0%

-19.3

-4.5%

10/27/95

405.5

425.0

404.0

417.3

11.8

2.9%

19.5

4.8%

-1.5

-0.4%

10/25/96

386.2

393.8

382.0

389.4

3.2

0.8%

7.6

2.0%

-4.2

-1.1%

10/31/97

404.2

407.7

379.5

389.0

-15.2

-3.8%

3.5

0.9%

-24.7

-6.1%

10/30/98

336.4

363.5

336.7

357.5

21.1

6.3%

27.1

8.1%

0.3

0.1%

10/29/99

401.2

434.0

395.5

404.1

2.9

0.7%

32.8

8.2%

-5.7

-1.4%

10/27/00

566.5

599.9

566.0

585.5

19.0

3.4%

33.4

5.9%

-0.5

-0.1%

10/26/01

423.4

450.0

410.0

427.9

4.5

1.1%

26.6

6.3%

-13.4

-3.2%

10/25/02

586.8

600.0

565.0

598.1

11.3

1.9%

13.2

2.2%

-21.8

-3.7%

10/31/03

745.9

779.0

736.2

760.3

14.4

1.9%

33.1

4.4%

-9.7

-1.3%

10/29/04

833.0

882.8

821.2

859.7

26.7

3.2%

49.8

6.0%

-11.8

-1.4%

10/28/05

941.8

1000.0

916.0

986.1

44.3

4.7%

58.2

6.2%

-25.8

-2.7%

10/27/06

1079.7

1219.8

1075.5

1192.1

112.4

10.4%

140.1

13.0%

-4.2

-0.4%

10/26/07

1469.1

1484.8

1390.8

1453.2

-15.9

-1.1%

15.7

1.1%

-78.3

-5.3%

SINCE 1993

#UP

12

#DOWN

3

AVERAGE

15.7

2.1%

31.5

4.8%

-15.2

-2.2%

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.  PLEASE REFER TO THE HYPOTHETICAL DISCLAIMER AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS TEXT FOR FURTHER DETAILS, LIMITATIONS, AND DETAILS ASSOCIATED WITH USING THE ABOVE INFORMATION.  RALLY REFERS TO THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER CLOSE AND THE HIGHEST PRICE DURING THE 1ST 3 WEEKS OF NOVEMBER, WHILE BREAK REFERS TO THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE LAST WEEK CLOSE OF OCTOBER AND LOWEST PRICE DURING THE 1ST 3 WEEKS OF NOVEMBER.

SUMMARY:  During the 1st three weeks of November, January Platinum futures have risen in value 12 of the last 15 years (80.0%) by an average of $15.7/oz (2.1%) on a weekly closing basis.  This is a significant improvement over the prior decade (1983 to 1992) when prices rose half the time (5 of 10) and actually declined by an average of -$8.5/oz (-1.3%) on a weekly closing basis during the 1st weeks of October.  Since 1993 the Average Rally has been +$31.5/oz (4.8%), more than doubling the Average Break of -$15.2/oz (-2.2%) during this time frame, showing that traders may well wish to look for Platinum to be bullish during the early half of November, as well as through till February of next year.

Despite 2007’s loss of -$15.9/oz (-1.1%), traders should note that this cycle has been bullish during the 1st three weeks of November in 10 of the last 11 years.

 

 
THE DATA CONTAINED HERE IN ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT CANNOT BE GUARANTEED AS TO RELIABILITY, ACCURACY, OR COMPLETENESS; AND, AS SUCH ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE.  CFEA WILL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ANYTHING, WHICH MAY RESULT FROM RELIANCE ON THIS DATA OR THE OPINIONS EXPRESSED HERE IN.

DISCLOSURE OF RISK: THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL; THEREFORE, ONLY GENUINE RISK FUNDS SHOULD BE USED. FUTURES AND OPTIONS MAY NOT BE SUITABLE INVESTMENTS FOR ALL INDIVIDUALS, AND INDIVIDUALS SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER THEIR FINANCIAL CONDITION IN DECIDING WHETHER TO TRADE. OPTION TRADERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THE EXERCISE OF A LONG OPTION WOULD RESULT IN A FUTURES POSITION.

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. 

NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL, OR IS LIKELY TO, ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. 

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM, IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES, ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS, IN GENERAL, OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.