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CRUDE OIL FUTURES
Oil provides about 40 percent of the energy Americans consume and roughly 97 percent of our transportation fuels.  Oil is at the crux of the modern economic system, and its importance should not be discounted.  Not only is Oil, in one form or another, used to heat our homes and fuel our vehicles, petroleum-based products can be found in a variety of everyday household items, including deodorant, toothpaste, paints, balloons, perfumes and cosmetics.

 

Top 5 Producers
Rank Country % of Total
1) OPEC 36.0%
2) Russia 14.0%
3) USA 10.0%
4) North Sea 6.0%
5) Mexico 5.0%
World Production 84.4
data in million barrels per day

Crude Oil is the raw material for all petroleum products, ranging from gasoline to lubricants.  A typical 42 gallon barrel of Crude Oil is broken down into the following components: 19.5 gallons is used to produce gasoline, 9.2 gallons are used to produce distillate fuels (such as Heating Oil), 4.1 gallons goes for the production of kerosene jet fuel, and 2.3 gallons is used in the production of residual fuels.  The remainder is primarily for chemical production and lubricants.

What a Barrel of Crude Oil Makes

 

Product

Gallons per Barrel

Gasoline

19.5

Distillate Fuel Oil

(includes both home heating oil & diesel)

 

9.2

Kerosene-type Jet Fuel

4.1

Residual Fuel Oil

(heavy oils used as fuels in industry, marine transport and electric power generation)

 

2.3

Liquefied Refinery Gases

1.9

Still Gas

1.9

Coke

1.8

Asphalt and Road Oil

1.3

Petrochemical Feedstock

1.2

Lubricants

0.5

Kerosene

0.2

Other

0.3

Figures are based on 1995 average yields for US refineries.  One barrel of oil contains 42 gallons.  Excess due to "processing gain" 

Because the demand for Crude Oil is directly tied to the demand for its products, Crude Oil has two demand peaks each year, coinciding with the demand peaks of its two main products: Unleaded Gasoline and Heating Oil.

Top 5 Consumers

Rank Country % of Total
1) United States 25.0%
2) Japan 8.3%
3) Former USSR 6.7%
4) China 4.9%
5) Germany 4.2%
World Usage 82.8
in million barrels per day

One of the major influences on the supply of Crude Oil is the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC. 

5 Year World Production

2002 77.717
2003 76.957
2004 79.565
2005 83.005
2006 84.411

Because Oil production is in politically unstable regions of the world - the Middle East, Russia, etc.  prices normally reflect a "risk premium" above the nominal price one would assume based strictly on supply and demand.

5 Year World Usage

2002 82.832
2003 83.987
2004 84.453
2005 79.752
2006 78.082

Trader's should note that the strongest times of the year usually coincide with the dual demand nature for Crude Oil dictated by it's products - Unleaded Gasoline and Heating Oil.

 

7 and 19 year Average Seasonal Price

 

 

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THE DATA CONTAINED HERE IN ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT CANNOT BE GUARANTEED AS TO RELIABILITY, ACCURACY, OR COMPLETENESS; AND, AS SUCH ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE.  CFEA WILL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ANYTHING, WHICH MAY RESULT FROM RELIANCE ON THIS DATA OR THE OPINIONS EXPRESSED HERE IN.

DISCLOSURE OF RISK: THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL; THEREFORE, ONLY GENUINE RISK FUNDS SHOULD BE USED. FUTURES AND OPTIONS MAY NOT BE SUITABLE INVESTMENTS FOR ALL INDIVIDUALS, AND INDIVIDUALS SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER THEIR FINANCIAL CONDITION IN DECIDING WHETHER TO TRADE. OPTION TRADERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THE EXERCISE OF A LONG OPTION WOULD RESULT IN A FUTURES POSITION.

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. 

NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL, OR IS LIKELY TO, ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. 

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM, IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES, ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS, IN GENERAL, OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.