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 CRUDE OIL FUTURES MARKET OVERVIEW

 

Each barrel of Crude Oil produces roughly on average 19 gallons of gasoline and 9 gallons of distillate fuels (Heating Oil).  It is by understanding the nature of the demand for petroleum products that one can understand the normal price action in the petroleum market.

 
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It takes several weeks, to months to convert a barrel of Crude Oil to either Unleaded Gasoline (HU) or Heating Oil (HO) for consumer usage.  As such wholesalers – known as “jobbers” – tend to buy ahead of normal retail demand, thus driving prices up (and down) ahead of perceived retail usage or playing “catch up” once retail usage manifests itself.

* Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  See disclaimer below 2 for further details.

Traders should readily notice that the weakest period for Crude Oil prices ins the October/November period, when gasoline demand is weak and much of the Heating Oil demand has been met – as most Heating Oil customers buy a seasons worth of product at a time. 

However, traders may wish to take to heart the fact that run-ups ahead of the quintessential “Summer Driving Season” which kicks off in March and the “Winter Heating Season” which starts in October, have often seen the futures move to price in these events – offering a clue towards future direction (subscribe to the Commodity Almanac Newsletter for further information).

No inventory system is as efficient as that of major refineries.  They are very aware of usage trends and their own supply, and thus price their products to meet demand with great efficiency – for proof simply look at Exxon/Mobiles earnings (XOM) which set a new record for the most cash as publicly traded company made in 2005.

Sponsored By:

Commodity Trader's Almanac 2008
Scott W. Barrie
Best Price $26.37
or Buy New $26.37

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

THE DATA CONTAINED HERE IN ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT CANNOT BE GUARANTEED AS TO RELIABILITY, ACCURACY, OR COMPLETENESS; AND, AS SUCH ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE.  CFEA WILL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ANYTHING, WHICH MAY RESULT FROM RELIANCE ON THIS DATA OR THE OPINIONS EXPRESSED HERE IN.

DISCLOSURE OF RISK: THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL; THEREFORE, ONLY GENUINE RISK FUNDS SHOULD BE USED. FUTURES AND OPTIONS MAY NOT BE SUITABLE INVESTMENTS FOR ALL INDIVIDUALS, AND INDIVIDUALS SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER THEIR FINANCIAL CONDITION IN DECIDING WHETHER TO TRADE. OPTION TRADERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THE EXERCISE OF A LONG OPTION WOULD RESULT IN A FUTURES POSITION.

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. 

NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL, OR IS LIKELY TO, ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. 

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM, IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES, ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS, IN GENERAL, OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.