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ARRIVAL OF SPRING LIFTS NATURAL GAS IN MARCH

Natural Gas is used to both heat homes as well as cool them.  Natural Gas can be used to run residential air conditioners – which are growing in popularity – the major impetuous for demand for Natural Gas during the summer months is the generation of electricity, while during the cooler winter months residential Natural Gas heating drives the market.

Though the strongest period for Natural Gas is August/September the most consistently up month for prices is March.  The August/September period is a transitional period from the cooling season to the heating season and Natural Gas plays a larger role in Heating of homes than cooling.  However, the transition from Heating to cooling is also very important, as often late cold snaps and builds of inventory translate into higher prices.

This transitional increase in pricing seen in March is readily evident by the fact that June Natural Gas futures have increased 13 times since 1991, decreased twice and in 1991 – when the futures began traded – settled unchanged during March.  The strongest March’s have typically followed February strength, with an average gain of +$0.235/mmtbu Vs +$0.209/mmtbu in all March’s.

JUNE NATURAL GAS DOLLARS PER MMTU CHANGES

MARCH MONTHLY CHANGES

RANKED BY FEBRUARY CHANGE
Feb Feb Mar  
Date Close Change Change  
2003 5.761 0.862 -0.661  
2004 5.486 0.448 0.497  
2005 6.870 0.446 0.888  
2000 2.780 0.220 0.170  
2002 2.478 0.152 0.831 Average
2001 5.322 0.142 -0.250 0.234
1993 1.770 0.140 0.210  
1995 1.550 0.070 0.200  
1996 2.010 0.060 0.250  
1998 2.350 0.040 0.210  
1991 1.430 -0.010 0.000  
1994 2.150 -0.010 -0.060  
1992 1.180 -0.050 0.150  
1997 1.900 -0.140 0.070 Average
1999 1.700 -0.170 0.340 0.173
2007 7.507 -0.259 0.363  
2006 7.075 -2.506 0.345  

 

Disclosure of Risk:  The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial.
See disclaimer below for more details.

 

Sponsored By:


Commodity Trader's Almanac 2008
Scott W. Barrie
Best Price $26.37
or Buy New $26.37

 

 

 

 

 
 
THE DATA CONTAINED HERE IN ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT CANNOT BE GUARANTEED AS TO RELIABILITY, ACCURACY, OR COMPLETENESS; AND, AS SUCH ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE.  CFEA WILL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ANYTHING, WHICH MAY RESULT FROM RELIANCE ON THIS DATA OR THE OPINIONS EXPRESSED HERE IN.

DISCLOSURE OF RISK: THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL; THEREFORE, ONLY GENUINE RISK FUNDS SHOULD BE USED. FUTURES AND OPTIONS MAY NOT BE SUITABLE INVESTMENTS FOR ALL INDIVIDUALS, AND INDIVIDUALS SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER THEIR FINANCIAL CONDITION IN DECIDING WHETHER TO TRADE. OPTION TRADERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THE EXERCISE OF A LONG OPTION WOULD RESULT IN A FUTURES POSITION.

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. 

NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL, OR IS LIKELY TO, ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. 

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM, IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES, ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS, IN GENERAL, OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.